Pac-12 bowl projections: Connecting non-conference record to bowl eligibility (we plunged into the data)

This is the only week of the Pac-12 season with 12 games: Every team plays a non-conference opponent.

Only three are against Power Five teams (Michigan State, Oklahoma and Texas Tech), but most are challenging and every one is critical to the postseason math.

The Hotline examined the non-conference results for each Pac-12 team over the past eight years — since the start of the 12-school/two division era — to better understand the strength of the correlation between non-conference record and bowl eligibility.

How often do teams with a 1-2 non-conference mark reach the six-win threshold?

How often do 2-1 teams do it?

How rare is it for 3-0 teams to not qualify?

Do 0-3 teams ever get in?

Also: Is there a correlation between the Pac-12’s overall non-conference record and the conference’s performance in bowl games?

Here’s what we found: